World EV sales in April a new high

World EV/PHEV sales in April reached a new record in absolute terms and as a percentage (2.4%) of total global car sales.  Sales are growing by 60% per annum.  At the beginning of 2014, EV sales formed just 0.4% of total car sales.  Four and a bit years later that percentage has risen 6 fold.  Note that both charts are drawn in log scales, which means that a constant rate of growth will show as a straight line.

If we assume that growth in EV/PHEV sales continues at 50% per annum, by end 2019, EVs will make up roughly 5% of total global car sales, by end 2022 roughly 16%, and by end 2025 well over half.  YEah, but could that growth rate slow?  Eventually, yes, as EV sales reach 70 or 80% of total car sales.  But if anything, sales growth could accelerate over the next 6 years, as more and more manufacturers expand their ranges of EVs and PHEVs, as consumers get used to the idea of EVs, as the cost of EVs falls, as charger networks expand, and as carbon taxes/cap-and-trade policies start in more countries/regions. 

It seems very plausible that in 10 years' time, 90% or more of car and light truck sales will be EVs.     It won't take till 2040 or 2050 for the switch to occur.  It's happening right now, and the growth rate is exponential.  The moral for oil producers and retailers and legacy car makers is abundantly clear.

➽ As usual, the source of basic data is Inside EVs, with my seasonal adjustment.  EV means (pure) electric vehicle, PHEV means plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.