Model 3 sales over 6000 in May

Tesla doesn't report monthly sales, but a couple of people make estimates.  I've talked before about Bloomberg's Tesla tracker which estimates weekly Model 3 production.  Inside EVs estimates monthly sales.  Their estimate for Model 3 sales in May was 6,250.  But Bloomberg's estimate for Model 3 production for May is 9,586--half Musk's target for June production.  Tesla is adding to stockpiles of Model 3's and delaying delivery because it is very close to the 200,000 cutoff point for the Federal EV tax credit.  When a car maker reaches the 200,000 sales point, the Federal tax credit for all EVs sold in that quarter and the next remains at $7500.  In the next two quarters it halves,  and in the two quarters after that it halves again, before reaching zero in the 6th quarter after sales reached 200,000.  So it makes sense for Tesla to hold back selling cars until the first day of Q3 (1st July) and then to sell as many as it can in Q3, so that as many customers as possible get the full tax credit.  This is consistent with many anecdotes of people seeing large yards full of stored Model 3s. 

The moral of the story is that Model 3 sales will be deliberately constrained in June, and will probably fall to 5,000 or below, but will explode in July.   Even at 5,000, the Model 3 is far outselling GM's Bolt and Nissan's new Leaf.  At Tesla's target of 20,000+ per month, the Model 3 will be outselling the total of all EVs sold in 2017.