Sunday, January 26, 2014

A blip?

Click chart to get it at full size

US markets fell a couple of percent last week.  In the context of the last 25 years, the fall is barely visible on the long-term chart (which is, as it should be, plotted on a log scale).  Yes, the market's had a good run, yes, it's much pricier than it was, and yes, there are question marks about emerging market growth.  On the other hand, DM (developed market) growth is accelerating, and DM central banks are very unlikely to raise interest rates for many many months.

If the blue line (the 150 day moving average) turns down, I shall be very concerned, because that would be one (strong) signal that a new bear market is emerging.

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