Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

A blip?

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US markets fell a couple of percent last week.  In the context of the last 25 years, the fall is barely visible on the long-term chart (which is, as it should be, plotted on a log scale).  Yes, the market's had a good run, yes, it's much pricier than it was, and yes, there are question marks about emerging market growth.  On the other hand, DM (developed market) growth is accelerating, and DM central banks are very unlikely to raise interest rates for many many months.

If the blue line (the 150 day moving average) turns down, I shall be very concerned, because that would be one (strong) signal that a new bear market is emerging.

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