Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Oil price plunge

The oil price is plunging.  This isn't because there've been lots of new discoveries.  It's because demand is falling, and that's because the world economy is slowing.

Notice how it made a "death cross" a couple of months ago, and is heading towards its previous low in mid-2011?   Other commodity prices are falling too.  Combine that with weak economies and you're going to get falling inflation.  Deflation?  Could be.  Not at all a pleasant prospect when Western economies are so heavily indebted.

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