Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Sunday, January 22, 2012

It's been a while ...



I've been wrestling with the usual demons.  Not to mention time-short.

So just a quickie.

Some thoughts:


  • US data have been consistently better than expected and also consistently revised upwards, always a reliable sign of growth strengthening
  • European data have done the opposite -- no surprise, given Europe's problems and the staggeringly inept response of the pollies and the ECB
  • Chinese data have been weak and anecdotal reports suggest that monetary tightening has bitten deep.  Since inflation has decisively peaked, I expect the Chinese pooh-bahs to aggressively stimulate this year.  They've already started with one cut to liquid asset requirements.  They're going to do a lot more.
  • The S&P 500 has broken upwards, but the Ozzie market hasn't yet.  The S&P has broken out on the top side of a bullish wedge, the 50 day moving average has turned up, the original has crossed the moving average on the upside, the 150 day moving average has turned up and the 50 day has crossed the 150 day on the upside.  Actually all this happened a coupla weeks ago, and I meant to alert y'all, but I didn't get round to it.  :-(


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