Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Not yet a recession

So we have the two ISMs for July and the components for my coinciding index for June.  Weakening but not yet indicating recession -- more of classic mid-cycle slowdown.  Tonight we get payrolls, unemployment and overtime, all reliable indicators.

Meanwhile there's blood on the streets.  I recommend against panicking.

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