Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Not yet a recession

So we have the two ISMs for July and the components for my coinciding index for June.  Weakening but not yet indicating recession -- more of classic mid-cycle slowdown.  Tonight we get payrolls, unemployment and overtime, all reliable indicators.

Meanwhile there's blood on the streets.  I recommend against panicking.

Click chart to enlarge it

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