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Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

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Sunday, August 7, 2011

Forget the US -- we're dependent on China now




In an article in Melbourne's The Age newspaper, Michael Pascoe pours scorn on those Ozzies who tremble when the US struggles.

It's worth reading, not just for fellow Ozzies but also for those Americans who care about where the American economy, and with it America's power, are headed.

Nearly 40 per cent of China's exports went to the US in 2001. Now that figure is down about 20 per cent and falling as a matter of policy. The China Daily runs stories about exporters diversifying, targeting markets in Brazil, India, Egypt, anywhere other than the US. It's an entirely obvious strategy as two-thirds of the world's growth already comes from outside the G-7, the ''old world'' major industrialised nations.

What's more, Beijing knows it has to flick the switch from exports to domestic consumption to maintain the strong economic growth it needs for social stability. That's officially spelt out in the latest five-year plan. And, unlike the US, China is actively pursuing the required economic reform instead of just talking about it.


Good news for Australia. Depressing for the US.  The US's inability to come to terms with the facts reminds me of another great power, Great Britain, taking 30 years after the second world war to sort out its economic mess.  Will American pollies be that blind and stupid?  I'm very afraid they will.

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