Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

My Coinciding Index for the US for July

We have most of the components now. Extreme-adjusted (a process which removes statistical aberrations), it rose 0.36%, unadjusted 0.40%. Quite respectable, really. It looks more and more plausible that at least part of the weakness in previous months was due to aftereffects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and floods in the US Midwest.  You can see the effects very clearly in the "level" chart (the lower one)
Click chart to enlarge

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