Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Deep recession, but very sluggish recovery



Total employment is shown as a percent decline from the peak for each cycle.  The GFC crisis caused the biggest decline since the war.  In the past, sharp declines have been followed by sharp increases.  But not this time.

Frankly, despite the rebound in the markets I'm beginning to wonder whether the required yield on shares isn't going to start rising.  Which will mean that share markets will struggle.  Perhaps (and it's only perhaps, so far) this is a dead cat bounce. I'll be watching the technicals very closely for the next couple of months.


[Source: Morgan Stanley]

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