Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Deep recession, but very sluggish recovery

Total employment is shown as a percent decline from the peak for each cycle.  The GFC crisis caused the biggest decline since the war.  In the past, sharp declines have been followed by sharp increases.  But not this time.

Frankly, despite the rebound in the markets I'm beginning to wonder whether the required yield on shares isn't going to start rising.  Which will mean that share markets will struggle.  Perhaps (and it's only perhaps, so far) this is a dead cat bounce. I'll be watching the technicals very closely for the next couple of months.

[Source: Morgan Stanley]

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