Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

March Labour Stats Strong

I've mentioned before how in an upturn, the estimates for employment growth from the payroll employment survey understate the rise in employment because the survey doesn't pick up new establishments at first.  It's only after the census surveys, sometimes a couple of years later, that the statisticians adjust the establishment survey for start-ups.  They then "panel-beat" the series backwards to make it fit in with the new census data.  So the growth in payrolls of 216,000, in itself not a poor figure, likely understates real employment growth.

Both the change in the unemployment rate (inverted because it falls as the economy recovers) and overtime hours in manufacturing were very strong.   The recovery is on track, and better than everyone thinks.

click to enlarge

As usual, if you click on the chart you can see it in all its original-sized glory.

1 comment:

  1. Nigel, I found my way here from your other blog. I'm enjoying it. I know you're not giving investment advice and am just assimilating your comments into all the other indicators and opinions I run across. I see that there are not many people checking this blog out, but I hope you will continue to post as you have something to say.

    By the way, you may have already told, but what does "Wolewica" mean? Wikipedia doesn't recognize it, at least not in English.