Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Correction over?

The US market was down just 7% at the lowest point in this recent correction.   Momentum (right hand chart) is now fairly oversold, not as oversold as it was during the European debt crisis of June/July last year, so it (and the market could go lower).  But I suspect not:  the economic recovery is just too strong.  Earnings are up over 40% year on year, and much of that is coming from top-line growth, i.e., sales, not margin expansion.  I'd be a buyer.  For now.  For the next six months, but perhaps not after, the risk of being out of the market is still higher than of being in it.

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