Thursday, March 27, 2025

Oz's EV sales: The Musk effect

 Australia's EV sales plunged in February.  This appears to be mostly because of a collapse in Tesla sales, down 75% in February over February last year.  And it's no good saying that it's because the market is waiting for the "refreshed" Model Y: Model 3 sales were down 80% over the same period.  

The new BYD sub-A$30,000 EV has been announced but not yet released.  I expect its sales will be phenomenal, because it's about the same size and same price as the cheapest Toyota Corolla, the Ascent Sport.   

If you routinely drive long distances, then you will prolly want a plug-in hybrid or an ICEV, because the rural charging network in Australia is still pretty feeble.   But if you mostly drive in the city, going to the supermarket or picking up the kids from school, while charging your EV in your garage, an EV will save you upwards of $2000 a year, and even more if you have your own solar panels, for the same up-front costs as the cheapest Corolla.  In addition, there's talk that the new BYD will allow V2H  (vehicle to house) charging later this year, which means you'll also save on your electricity bill.  In my case, I'd save $2,000 a year.  So your new BYD EV will pay for itself over 7 years.  Oh, and that's ignoring the tax incentives you'll get if you buy an EV (minimum 20% if you get average earnings, more if you earn more).

In short, I expect runaway sales of BYD's new EV.  Is this the low for EV sales?  Prolly; how much further can Tesla sales fall?  And, meanwhile, BYD has picked up the baton.




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