Thursday, February 20, 2025

Bond yields continue to rise

 Normally, at this stage of the cycle, bond yields would be falling, and they aren't.  Why?  For two reasons.  One, Trump's tariffs and his deportation of migrants will drive up inflation in the USA, which will inhibit the Fed from cutting the fed funds rate in the short term.  And maybe longer term too.  The second is also Trump's fault.  The bond market is very wary of his tax cuts for billionaires.  This will cause the US deficit to balloon.  The Republicans plan to increase the debt ceiling by an incredible 4 TRILLION dollars.   

Note that the 25-year downtrend in yields, which underpinned advances in the stock market and property, has been decisively broken.




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