According to my index of world industrial production, world IP continues to slow. Most countries which release monthly IP estimates have produced data up to May. I have estimated June IP for the majors using their June PMIs. However, this technique may not prove reliable---we shall see. (See the charts below for comparisons between the provisional and actual data)
The chart below shows the calculation to May for Big 8 IP, compared with the same calculation to June. Note that there have been revisions to previous months' IP data, as well as new observations for May. April's IP data for several countries were revised up.
The Euro area's IP estimate for May using its PMI seems to be almost exactly in line with the actual IP data release for May. We shall see whether the June estimate is as accurate. At any rate, it seems clear that Europe is in recession.
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