Sunday, July 23, 2023

China should be stronger than this

I finally got around to updating my China data and indices.  And, according to my China diffusion index, which leads my coinciding index by 7 months, China's economy should be stronger than it appears to be.   It is however true that my China coinciding index is growing reasonably, on a month-on-month basis.  Yet there are so many signs of weakness. 



This is possibly because of the plunge in China's exports, now heading towards GFC lows:



And that in turn is because the world economy (or at least, the manufacturing chunk of it) is so weak:



I think I need to dig deeper.  I'll get back to you.   (Click on each chart to see it more clearly)

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