The yield curve --- here, the gap between the 10-year bond yield and the cash rate/discount rate --- is a reliable lead to economic activity. The yield curves for both the US and the world are at record (my records, anyway) lows. The economy lags the yield curve by between 1 and 2 years. The yield curve may be troughing, but even if it is, the minimum lag before the economy turns is 12 months, which suggests an earliest turning point in mid 2024.
The last time the yield curve was this negative was in the months before the GFC (global financial crisis) in 2007.
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