The housing sector is a reliable leading indicator in most economies. It leads at the peak of the cycle by 12–18 months, at the trough by 6–12. A whole string of housing indicators are slumping, including prices. This chart, from Trading Economics, shows the sales of existing houses (i.e. not new ones) and as now as almost as low as it has been in 25 years. It may be close to bottoming, because the 30 year bond yield, off which fixed rate mortgages are priced, has prolly passed its cyclical peak. But that still postpones any recovery to the second half, maybe even Q4 this year.
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