Friday, December 16, 2022

China will slow in the long term



From a Tweet by Michael Pettis

So why will the {Chinese] economy continue [to] slow? Because of the same old problems that have existed for over a decade and that have only intensified in recent years: an overstretched and massive property sector, substantial amounts of non-productive spending on excess infrastructure, stagnant consumption growth, an over-reliance on debt to generate economic activity, institutional rigidities that make it hard to restructure the economy, a banking system totally underpinned by moral hazard and, of course, demographic decline. China's economic slowdown is the necessary consequence of a very unbalanced economic model that generated enormous amounts of real growth before making itself obsolete. This story has happened so many times before that we don't need to explain it with sudden policy shifts.



 

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