Monday, June 21, 2021

The IEA's coal phase out

 A key to cutting emissions is to stop burning coal.  Just doing that will cut global emissions by 30%. 


From EMBER

As envisioned in the IEA roadmap, achieving net-zero energy emissions globally will be led by a clean electricity revolution, due primarily to the relatively high level of technology readiness of the electricity industry and the growing attractiveness of electricity as an option for decarbonising other sectors, either directly or indirectly.

Some key milestones for this revolution, as set out in the IEA roadmap, include: no new unabated coal plants approved for development after 2021; global phase-out of subcritical coal power plants by 2030; and achieving 100% clean electricity in advanced economies by 2035 and globally by 2040. 

To achieve the above-noted milestones requires, according to IEA, a massive step-up of global wind and solar additions to over 700 GW per year over the next 30 years, from its current levels (about 250 GW in 2020). Other low-carbon generating technologies, especially hydro, nuclear, and bioenergy, are also expected to experience a rapid expansion, to meet about 12% of the global electricity needs by 2050. Besides, some energy technologies (e.g., hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilisation and storage, CCUS), that are currently in the demonstration or prototype stage, also need to expand rapidly, especially after 2030, to decarbonise the global electricity industry.



To achieve net-zero by 2050, developed countries (OECD in the chart above) will need to phase out all coal and gas by 2035.  Or it will have to abate all carbon emissions using carbon capture and storage (CCS) which is unlikely giving its cost.  Developing countries will need to achieve net-zero electricity by 2040.  It is also vital that no new coal power stations be approved for development, starting from now.

The chart doesn't show battery storage requirements, but by 2030, we will prolly need 4 hours of storage, supplemented by EV batteries and power-to-gas


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