Starship's orbital launch in 2020?

Source: NASASpaceFlight/BocaChicaGal 

From Teslarati:

Despite the spectacular demise of a full-scale prototype just days ago, a senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship could still be ready for its first orbital launch attempt before the end of the year.

Even if the first launch attempt fails, that milestone – if realized – would be one of the single biggest upsets in the history of spaceflight, proving that Saturn V-scale orbital-class rockets can likely be built in spartan facilities with common materials for pennies on the dollar. Much like Falcon 1 suffered three launch failures before successfully reaching orbit, there’s a strong chance that Starship’s first shot at orbit will fall short, although each full-up launch failure would likely cost substantially more than the current prototypes being routinely tested to destruction in South Texas.

Most recently, what CEO Elon Musk later described as a “a minor test of a quick disconnect” went wrong in a spectacular fashion, causing a major liquid methane leak that subsequently ignited and created a massive explosion. Although Starship SN4 did technically complete its fifth Raptor engine static fire test just a minute or so prior, the ship and its immediate surroundings were obliterated by the violent explosion, leaving little more than steel shrapnel and the broken husk of a launch mount behind. It’s in this context that one of SpaceX’s most levelheaded, expert executives believes that an orbital launch could still happen this year:

From Der Spiegel, interviewing Hans Königsmann, SpaceX's chief engineer:

SPIEGEL: SpaceX is already building the next largest spaceship, Starship, in Texas. This should be good for trips to the Moon and Mars. But a prototype has just been destroyed during a test. Is the program still on track?

Königsmann: The program is clearly separate from our work with the "Crew Dragon". It's about research. We want to see how far you can go with certain things. The goal is to learn as much as possible in a short time. Of course, if there are setbacks, it will slow us down. But that's part of it.

SPIEGEL: When will Starship fly for the first time?

Königsmann: First test flights to, let's say, 150 meters altitude, I expect in the coming weeks. [SN5  is nearly complete, and SN6 is well underway]  We'll do that a couple of times. If everything works out, we want to go into orbit at the end of the year. Or maybe it will take a little longer.

[Translated with help from Google Translate.  Read more of the interview here]

A reminder of my Mars expedition timetable (unchanged from last time):

The SpaceX/Mars timetable still looks doable, unless there is a disaster:

H1 2020: Tests to 20+ kms altitude.

End 2020: Full stack (i.e., Super Heavy booster plus Starship) operational.  First orbital flights of the Starship.

Early 2021: First commercial customers (for satellites), launches of Starlink constellation

Late 2022: Uncrewed mission to Mars (Mars is in opposition in December)

2023??: First commercial space station.  Launched on Starship, built by non-SpaceX companies—or maybe even by SpaceX

2023: 'Dear Moon' circumlunar expedition

2024??: Moon Base Alpha

Early 2025: Crewed mission to Mars  (How many ships?  Here's my analysis)

Early 2027: Second expedition to Mars.  Return of at least one Starship.  

2029: Third expedition to Mars.  Martian population reaches 300.  If Starship works, SpaceX will start designing even bigger rockets, capable of carrying more than 100 passengers, so Mars's population in 2029 could be more than 300.  Return of some Starships.

Boots on Mars by 2025.  Still on track.