SpaceX's Mars timetable

Starships at Mars Base Alpha

Elon Musk has confirmed the 2022 cargo and (late) 2024 crewed expedition dates to Mars.

From the Orlando Sentinel:

Falcon 9 is a means to an end, for Elon Musk, and while the rocket that just helped transport astronauts to the International Space Station celebrated its 10-year anniversary on Thursday, Musk is keeping his eyes on the prize with Starship.

Musk took to Twitter to reiterate the company’s plans for the next-generation space vehicle and its timeline to get to Mars.

Responding to questions on the social media platform, Musk confirmed SpaceX plans to get Starship on an uncrewed mission to the fourth planet from the sun by 2022 and with humans by 2024.

“Starship is the key to making life multiplanetary & protecting the light of consciousness,” Musk wrote.

He also figures that it will take about 25 years, or roughly 12 transfer windows - when Mars and Earth are in the right position to make the trip economical - for whatever presence is on Mars to be self-sustainable, not relying on support from Earth. 

Musk has previously stated his belief that the human species needs to branch out and colonize on other planets.
“We’re faced with a choice. Which future do you want? Do you want the future where we become a space-faring civilization and are in many worlds and are out there among the stars or are forever confined to Earth? And I say it’s the first, and I hope you agree with me," Musk said in a speech last September to SpaceX employees at the company’s testing site in Boca Chica, Texas.

“The reality is as far as we know this is the only place at least in this part of the galaxy, or in the Milky Way[as a whole], where there is consciousness and it’s taken a long time for us to get to this point,” Musk said.

On Wednesday, in response to a dire tweet about the eventual demise millions of years from now of the Earth at the hands of the sun, Musk tweeted, “That’s when all life on Earth will be boiled off. What matters is how long civilization is capable of making the jump to Mars. This could be a very short period of time measured in decades. It took 4.5 billion years to get to this point & civilization isn’t looking super stable.”

This has been my estimate of the timetable for over a year now, with minor tweaks:

H1 2020: Tests to 20+ kms altitude. [Now delayed till July 2020]

End 2020: Full stack (i.e., Super Heavy booster plus Starship) operational.  First orbital flights of the Starship.

Early 2021: First commercial customers (for satellites), launches of Starlink constellation

Late 2022: Uncrewed mission to Mars (Mars is in opposition in December)

2023??: First commercial space station.  Launched on Starship, built by non-SpaceX companies—or maybe even by SpaceX  [Not part of SpaceX's plans]

2023: 'Dear Moon' circumlunar expedition

2024: Moon Base Alpha [Depends on NASA]

Late 2024/Early 2025: Crewed mission to Mars  (How many ships?  Here's my analysis)

Early 2027: Second expedition to Mars.  Return of at least one Starship.  

2029: Third expedition to Mars.  Martian population reaches 300.  If Starship works, SpaceX will start designing even bigger rockets, capable of carrying more than 100 passengers, so Mars's population in 2029 could be more than 300.  Return of some Starships.