May's ISM and PMI up a little

May's ISM survey for manufacturing increased a little from April's number, as the Covid lockdown started to be lifted.  The extreme-adjustment algorithm smoothed over this downward spike, as it did for the PMI survey in the lower chart.

The signs that new cases of coronavirus are rising rapidly in the South and the West is not good news for a sustained and rapid recovery.  Even if officialdom doesn't force a lockdown, consumers may well decide to avoid shopping centres, restaurants, travel and other services.  Sweden had no official lockdown yet still has experienced a significant economic decline.  And high unemployment will most likely hold back spending even without further lockdowns.

The consensus is that we'll see a rapid return to "normal".  I doubt that, even though the Fed has pulled out all the stops.