Monday, June 15, 2020

Increasing financial instability

This chart shows the 12 month moving total of percentage moves in the S&P500 index without regard to sign.  For example, if the market moves 3% down in one day then 3% up the next, that would add up to 6%.  Moves of less than 3 or 5% in either direction are left out. 

The real significance of this chart is that the volatility is increasing.  Each cycle produces wilder movements.  And that's very interesting, because it suggests financial markets have become more and more unstable.  Unstable financial markets matter because the instability spills over into the real economy, as happened in 2008/2009 with the GFC.   Perhaps after all neo-liberalism is not an unmitigated good for the rich.





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