Thursday, April 16, 2020

Australia slides into recession

I haven't been maintaining my Australian databases apart from a couple of time series, because, well, I had enough on my plate.  They have to be maintained manually—there is no automated supplier that I can afford—so I have just let the updates slide.  However, I wanted to see the effects of the Covid Crash here as well as in the rest of the world, so I have started to update them.  So far, I'm only about one third of the way through the lists, but as an interim measure, I've produced a composite index of the series that I have updated which have more than 20 years of data.  I'll add more as I do the updates.

The index is now back at GFC levels, though not yet as low as the 1990 recession.  Also, it's been falling for a while, long before the covid crash hit.  It's not a good thing to be going into a great exogenous (=externally caused) shock when conditions are already weak.  The risks of a financial crash rise sharply.  For example, Oz's overblown property market is at serious risk, with high levels of indebtedness and a banking system dependent on mortgage lending and also on foreign borrowings to fund it. 

Make no mistake: this is just the beginning of the downturn.  In just one month, we have fallen to near record lows.  What will happen in 3 or 6 months?


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