US slows again in July

We have the ISM and final PMI indices for July now.  As I've mentioned before, averaging the two series gives us a smoother time series, with reduced random fluctuations.   That's the green line in the chart below.

Earlier in the month, partial data suggested that the US economy's slowdown had paused, but the PMI/ISM average both of which cover the whole country, suggest otherwise.  The chart below shows the average of the ISM/PMI compared with the average of the 5 regional Fed surveys (P=Philly Fed; E=Empire State; R=Richmond Fed; D= Dallas Fed; K=Kansas Fed).   The fit between the two series is excellent.  I'll be calculating my US diffusion index (which also ticked up in June) when the labour market stats for July are released, in a week's time.  On the zig/zag principle, they can be expected to be weak in July.  The Fed has cut rates 0.25%, but has said that there will be no further rate cuts for the time being.  The employment data might test their resolve.