Empire State survey plunges

The Fed's Empire State survey showed the biggest fall in its nearly 20-year history, falling from 17.8 points in May to -8.6 points in June.  My extreme adjustment program thinks the May number was too high and the June number too low:

Even though this is just one of the regional Fed surveys, it still has a decent correlation with national GDP.  In the chart below, I've shifted the plot of the Empire State survey to the right, i.e., I've lagged it by 3 months.  It points towards a big fall in GDP growth.

By itself, this plunge in the Empire State index is not enough to show the onset of a US recession, nor (for that reason) will it be enough to trigger a rate cut from the Fed.  But it's another straw in the wind confirming that the US economy is slowing.   Now we wait for the other Fed surveys and for the provisional PMIs over the next week.  But I doubt they'll show anything very different.