Friday, May 24, 2019

Big 3 PMI average falls again in May

The monthly PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) surveys are among the first observations available for the general state of (many) economies round the world.  For the largest economies, IHS Markit makes partial estimates using survey replies received to date for the current month.  These tend to be revised as more info becomes available, but the revisions are random in either direction, so an average of  the three main economies where preliminary PMI data are published is a good guide to what's happened during the month.  PMI is always 2 or 3 months  ahead (or more, sometimes!) of data for industrial production, retail sales, etc.  In the chart below I show the average PMI for Europe, Japan and the USA (preliminary PMIs for China are not estimated), and I've compared it with the rate of change in weighted IP for these countries.

Moral: still sliding.


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