Thursday, September 6, 2018

World growth slowing

World growth is clearly slowing.  Only the US and a few "rats and mice" are accelerating.  In some cases, the level of industrial production is falling, in other cases only the rate of change has rolled over.  My world IP index (weighted using 2007 PPP GDP data from the World Bank) has data through June 2018.  In a week or so, when data for some of the big Europe economies are released, I should be able to to do a preliminary index for July.

The US has held up as a result of the Trump tax cuts, but fiscal stimulus doesn't last.  When the US starts to slow, world growth will slip further.



European growth is clearly slowing fast:






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