Picture next year is much less sanguine. Fiscal stimulus from tax curs will fade, impact of Fed tightening will intensify. I expect an end 2019 recession.
Saturday, August 25, 2018
Still a bit of US growth left
Regional Fed Surveys so far fell in August on average. But there is a 3 month lag with economic activity. So Growth likely still strong (yoy) in Q3. And anyway, the fall so far is small. More Fed rate hikes inevitable.
Picture next year is much less sanguine. Fiscal stimulus from tax curs will fade, impact of Fed tightening will intensify. I expect an end 2019 recession.
Picture next year is much less sanguine. Fiscal stimulus from tax curs will fade, impact of Fed tightening will intensify. I expect an end 2019 recession.
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