The last three months have been the warmest May to July observed in Europe since at least 1850.
This was a heat wave on top of long-term warming.
However, if the recent rate of warming continues, then by 2040 a typical summer in Europe might be just as warm as 2018 has been.
The second chart from Robert Rohde is amazing. Note it's not the temperature anomaly, it's actual temperature, averaged, with a 7 year moving average fitted. The seven year moving average reduces year to year random fluctuations, which obscure the underlying signal.
At first, for 150 years, temps move sideways, with up and down cycles round an apparently stationary mean. Then from 1900 onwards, the mean starts to rise. There is, on other words, a modest long-term uptrend. From 1980 onwards, the uptrend becomes much steeper.
Robert Rohde is with Berkeley Earth
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