Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Sea level rise: denial by bullshit

From Open Mind:

Sea level rise is such a huge problem, and is so undeniable, that climate deniers have gone loony trying to blame it on anything and everything but global warming. It’s not working; the recent idiocy from congressman Mo Brooks trying to blame sea level rise on rocks and dirt filling the oceans didn’t increase doubt about human cause like he hoped, rather it raised extreme doubt about his competence. He, and his idea, quickly became a laughingstock. Others have been ridiculed for similarly ridiculous ideas. Now Roy Spencer has joined the crowd with something almost as dumb as rocks.

His “thesis” is that sea level rise before 1950 had to be all natural. His thesis is wrong. He further supposes that since 1950 it has continued to rise at the pre-1950 rate for entirely natural reasons. His further supposition is wrong. Only by using such blatantly false suppositions can he conclude that the human contribution to sea level rise is only 0.3 inches per decade (that’s 0.76 mm/yr). His conclusion is wrong.

[Read more here]


  1. The exponential slope of the atmospheric CO2 chart.  For global warming to stop, we need that line to be flat, which means we need to stop adding to the CO2 in the atmosphere by cutting emissions to zero.  Think of it as a bathtub with a very tiny plughole.   Until we turn the taps of altogether, the level of water in the bathtub will keep on rising--until it overflows.  Natural processes remove CO2 from the atmosphere but it will take thousands of years.
  2. The sharp down-spikes in the two series in the bottom chart are due to volcanic eruptions.  Volcanoes release SO2 into the upper atmosphere which forms 'aerosols' which reflect incoming infra-red from the sun back into space.  These particles quickly, within a couple of years, fall to earth, so the cooling effect is temporary.
  3. The global temperature anomaly, after allowing for volcanic eruptions, is rising in the same exponential way as CO2.  If we want to stop that rise we have to cease adding to the level of atmospheric CO2.
  4. The rise in global temperatures has been just under 0.2 degrees C per decade over the last 30 or 40 years.  We have already increased them by 1 degree C since pre-industrial times.  If it takes another 30 years to reach zero emissions, temperatures will rise by another 0.6 degrees.  
  5. Time is running out.  The bath is close to overflowing.

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