Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, July 30, 2017

First Tesla Model 3s

Last night Tesla handed over the first Model 3s to their buyers at a ceremony at the Tesla factory in Fremont California. (for some reason I thought Fremont was in the Los Angeles metro area; it's actually near San Francisco, next door to Silicon Valley)

The basic model will cost US$35,000 and will have 220 miles (350 kms) of range, and for an extra $9000 you can get another 90 miles (145 kms) of range.  In his speech, Elon Musk said that the number of Tesla superchargers will be tripled by the end of 2018 to 18,000.  Superchargers add 170 miles (270 kms) of range in half an hour, whereas a home charger adds only 40 kms range in the same time.  But if you charge your Model 3 overnight in your garage, it will fully recharge between midnight and 6 am.  For most trips, to the office, the railway station, the shops, that's more than enough.  It's only on long road trips that you will need a supercharger.  Or else, if you live in a house or flat without a garage.  Tesla has recently started installing superchargers in cities to cater for these users.  No other car manufacturer has such an extensive network of fast chargers.

The real flexion point in the take-up curve of electric cars was going to come when an EV costing the same as an average car went on sale.  Make no mistake, the Tesla 3 is a luxury car, unlike the Chevy Bolt which costs about the same.  It will be a formidable competitor.  I forecast here that EVs and PHEVs would reach 10% of US new car sales during 2019.  The quality and style of the Tesla Model 3 and the huge Tesla supercharger network make me even more confident that I am right.

Here are some images (from InsideEVs) showing just how classy the Model 3 is.

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