Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

2016 another record

It seems clear that 2016 is going to be another record year for global temperatures, the third in a row.  The chart below, from Better Nature, plots the 12 month moving average of the monthly anomaly, plus a 132 month (11 year) moving average, plus a linear OLSQ trend from 1970 to 2016.  The dots show the annual (January-December) average.  Obviously, there isn't yet one for 2016, because we don't have data for November or December.

The 11 year moving average is very close to the linear trend, suggesting that an 11 year moving average is a pretty good approximation.  And, the rise over the last 4 years is larger than the rise leading up to the last big El Niño in 1998, so if global temperatures don't fall as they did after the last El Niño, then the slope of the 11 year moving average will steepen, hinting that the trend also has shifted.  If they do fall, of course the denialists will be back with their rubbish "temperatures haven't risen for the last X years."  But the thing to watch is the 11 year moving average.

I'll keep you posted.


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