The 11 year moving average is very close to the linear trend, suggesting that an 11 year moving average is a pretty good approximation. And, the rise over the last 4 years is larger than the rise leading up to the last big El Niño in 1998, so if global temperatures don't fall as they did after the last El Niño, then the slope of the 11 year moving average will steepen, hinting that the trend also has shifted. If they do fall, of course the denialists will be back with their rubbish "temperatures haven't risen for the last X years." But the thing to watch is the 11 year moving average.
I'll keep you posted.