Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Wind and solar half the cost of coal

From RenewEconomy:

The cost of wind and solar energy has fallen so dramatically that wind and solar plants can now be built in South Africa at nearly half the cost of new coal, according to the country’s principal research organisation.

I've replotted the data on a log scale, to give you a better idea of the trends.  The prices are in constant 2015 Rands.  Note (a) that there is no sign that the percentage trend declines are slowing, (b) that wind which used to be much cheaper than solar now costs the same and is falling more slowly in cost (though still falling) and (c) coal is outclassed.  That disparity in favour of renewables can only increase.

South Africa is not an advanced economy like Germany or the U.S.   We know that wind is under US$30/MWh is the US, with its excellent access to capital, and its longer learning curve.  Yet, even in SA, renewables are substantially cheaper than coal.

Coal is finished.


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