Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, October 19, 2015

China's September IP down again

IP (industrial production) growth in China slowed again in September to just 5.7%  I keep on thinking we've hit the (mini-) cyclical low, and I keep on being wrong.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Friday, October 9, 2015

Sea level rise accelerating

The annual rise in the sea level has increased.

By my calcs, the annual rise in the last few years has jumped from 3.31 mm/yr to 6.

You can read more here.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Solar sparking utility tension

This intriguing chart came from the third part of an article in CleanTechnica about the way the grid needs to change.  It's obvious why electric utilities are worried.  But it also means that the rest of us can breathe a sigh of relief, because it implies emissions will peak soon.  The percentage of new capacity is exhibiting a class s-curve, which will take it to 100% or more within the decade.

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Disruptive technologies: EVs

An interesting article about how EV sales are likely to grow.  Different kinds of buyers buy a new technology at different stages, but--and this is key--once the S-curve has bent upwards, the shift is extremely rapid.  Norway is a good example of this: EV sales are 26% of total car sales now, but a year ago they were just 15%.  Elsewhere we haven't reached the lower flexion point, but it is surely just two or three years away.

Read the rest of the article here.

How much solar do we need?