Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

The Paris Climate Agreement

Yes, it's tempting to dismiss the agreement.  Kyoto more or less failed.  Copenhagen was a disaster.    Why should the world, which loves the benefits brought from oil and coal, but ignores the costs,  actually do anything?

And yet .... there are some indications that the shift has already started, and will only accelerate:

 I read 15 or 20 articles every day about global warming and renewables, and most of them point towards a future in which global CO2 emissions peak and start falling, quite fast, in which renewables energy just gets cheaper and cheaper, in which the ingenuity of mankind allows us to go green with no effect on growth or living standards.  This shift poses major challenges to energy producers and to grid operators. But just as technological change expanded their markets, so change once again is contracting their markets.  As for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other major oil producers, the sooner they diversify their economies, the better.  This new green energy world is not going to go away, whatever they think.  And the switch is accelerating.


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