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Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

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Monday, December 14, 2015

Climate change denialism

I don't understand the where the climate change denialists are coming from.  
1. The world's temperatures are rising. The evidence is actually quite unambiguous.

The NOAA time series of global temperatures
The warming pause myth
Sea level rise accelerating

2. But even if all the climate change scientists and meteorologists are wrong -- and they probably aren't  -- so what? The cost of renewables is now BELOW the cost of coal-fired power. Wind is 40% to 50% cheaper than new coal-fired power stations.  In Australia, wind is 40% cheaper than new coal power stations.  In the US, even without subsidy, wind is much cheaper and solar is competitive with coal  So it won't cost us to switch.  Just in case all those scientists who warn about climate change are right.

3. And the costs of renewables continue to plunge. They're as cheap as fossil fuels now, and they will go on getting cheaper:
Wind
Solar
Batteries

4. Switching to renewables won't cut growth rates or lower living standards: on the contrary, new cheap energy will increase growth.

5.  So why are the denialists still fighting for a lost and -- unless you own a coal mine or are an oil magnate -- pointless cause?  And therein lies the answer, I think.  Scratch a denialist and you'll find someone in the pay of fossil fuel mega corporations.

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