Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Hottest March ever recorded

For the last 11 months we've seen global temperature records tumble, and now we have just recorded another month where temps have reached a new record, with the hottest March ever.


 Because there are random fluctuations in the data, you get a clearer picture by using a moving average.  The chart below shows the 12 month average to March each year.  The last big spike was in 1998, which was both a year of positive PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a 10-30 year cycle where heat gets absorbed into the Pacific only to be subsequently released) and a year of strong ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation).  Forecasters expect another positive ENSO this year, and as at the latest data, the PDO was becoming more positive.  So this spike is unlikely to reverse itself in the short term.


An even smoother picture is given using a 5 year (60 month) moving average.  Note how the famous "pause", so beloved of climate change denialists and demented plutocrats, is merely a slight slowdown lasting just a couple of years, no different to previous mini-cycles, and how, even with a five year moving average, global temps are now the hottest ever recorded.


Time to act.  Especially since renewables are now cheaper than or as cheap as fossil fuels.  Switching to renewables won't cost the earth.

[Source of world temperature data: NOAA; clicking on the charts gives a larger image]

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