Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

China industrial production slows further

China's March industrial production fell to a new low growth rate, almost back at GFC (2009) levels.  Because Chinese New Year is peripatetic (i.e., sometimes it's in January, sometimes in February), the simple year-on-year % change is very "spiky".  Extreme-adjusting the data produces an altogether smoother and easier to interpret chart.

My guess is that growth is now weak enough that the Chinese govt will be inclined towards stimulus, though there is no doubt that they do not wish to go back to the helter-skelter growth rates of the early noughties because it brought so many problems in its wake (corruption, pollution, property speculation, dodgy loans, overbuilding, etc.)

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