Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

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Monday, January 12, 2015

EV sales surging

During 2013 EV (electric vehicle) sales rose 66% from 123,567 to 205,642.  (I'll give you the 2014 figures as soon as I have them)

Of course, this is a tiny percentage of global vehicle sales.  In 2013 87 million cars and commercial vehicles were produced, so EV sales are just 0.02% of total fossil-fuelled vehicle sales.  But battery costs are plummeting.  As charging stations spread, and range is increased, sales are likely to continue to grow rapidly.  If this rate of growth is maintained, EV sales will be up 12-fold in 5 years.  0.02% will turn into 2.8% and 5 years after that 1/3 of all vehicle sales will be EVs.

Pic shows GM's Volt, a plug-in hybrid, i.e., it has a hybrid petrol-electric engine but its batteries can be recharged from the electric mains.  Initially, I expect the plug-in hybrids will outsell pure electrics until range anxiety is overcome and charge stations become ubiquitous.  Meanwhile the Volt has an electric range of 60kms, enough for most ppl's daily commute.

EVs are where solar was 10 years ago.

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