Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Philly Fed & Empire State

These are two of the earliest available indicators of the state of the US economy for the previous month, i.e., August at this point.  They're full of random fluctuations, so it's best to look at a 3 month moving average of their average (each one's random fluctuations offsets the other's), which is what's shown in the chart below.

The US economy continues to strengthen.

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