Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Friday, January 3, 2014

No sign US is slowing

The PMI and ISM indices for December for the US remained at a reasonable level, not yet boom but very far from bust.

My guess is that QE will go on being "tapered" but that this won't have any effect on growth though bond yields are likely to continue to rise albeit more slowly than they have done over the last 8 or 9 months.  This will be a moderate headwind for the market (I mean the share market)  Though the US recovery is far from boom territory, the US bull market is very long in the tooth.  But until the Fed starts raising the Fed Funds target rate, which won't happen for many many months, the bull market will be intact.  All the same, it's had a good run.  Caution.

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