Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Monday, February 4, 2013

US econ reaccelerating

The chart shows the PMI and the ISM, two separate US surveys of manufacturing sentiment about sales, production, etc.  The ISM used to be called the NAPM survey, and it's correlated very well indeed with economic growth, both big and smaller cycles, over 70 years.  The ISM survey has a much shorter history, but the two move more or less together.

Both are strengthening.

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