Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

China's bottoming

The official and the HSBC/Markit PMI's both rose in November, as did my estimate of the IP growth rate (based on a 3 month lag to the average of the two PMIs).  Other evidence (electricity prdn, imports, exports, etc) confirm that the slowdown has stopped.

I doubt growth will reach the heady heights seen before, but no matter:  these days it's a far more important member of the world economy, so even at the new lower growth rate, it will still be significant.

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