Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

China's bottoming

The official and the HSBC/Markit PMI's both rose in November, as did my estimate of the IP growth rate (based on a 3 month lag to the average of the two PMIs).  Other evidence (electricity prdn, imports, exports, etc) confirm that the slowdown has stopped.

I doubt growth will reach the heady heights seen before, but no matter:  these days it's a far more important member of the world economy, so even at the new lower growth rate, it will still be significant.

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