Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Spain bank audit paves way for bailout

The Age article here.

We're coming to the end of the GFC-related disasters (though note how the article points out that the current Spanish crisis has been made more severe by previous austerity; maybe the same will happen again).  No convincing signs yet that Europe has bottomed.  The usual suspects among the brokers have been wheeling out the champagne ("the worst is over") at a very modest rise in the European PMI.  I hae me doots.

Meanwhile the Spanish 10 year  bond yield has drifted up a tad (Chart from Bloomberg)  Personally, I would be extremely careful not to short Spanish or Italian bonds.  You'd be on a hiding to nothing -- if yields rise any more, a rescue will be announced and the ECB will then be empowered to buy unlimited quantities of bonds.  In other words:  if things improve by themselves, bond yields will fall, and if they don't, the ECB will open its purse, and bond yields will fall.

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