Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Spain bank audit paves way for bailout

The Age article here.

We're coming to the end of the GFC-related disasters (though note how the article points out that the current Spanish crisis has been made more severe by previous austerity; maybe the same will happen again).  No convincing signs yet that Europe has bottomed.  The usual suspects among the brokers have been wheeling out the champagne ("the worst is over") at a very modest rise in the European PMI.  I hae me doots.

Meanwhile the Spanish 10 year  bond yield has drifted up a tad (Chart from Bloomberg)  Personally, I would be extremely careful not to short Spanish or Italian bonds.  You'd be on a hiding to nothing -- if yields rise any more, a rescue will be announced and the ECB will then be empowered to buy unlimited quantities of bonds.  In other words:  if things improve by themselves, bond yields will fall, and if they don't, the ECB will open its purse, and bond yields will fall.



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