For now, I'll just show the unemployment rate chart, because it encapsulates the problem.
Note how in previous recoveries the unemployment rate has fallen sharply. This has been the great strength of the American system: unemployment might soar during recession, but it also falls just as fast in recovery. This time, its not happening. Coupla points:
- A sluggish recovery is entirely to be expected when an economy has to rebuild its balance sheets because of too much debt.
- These numbers mean that Obama might well lose the election (forget all the hoopla, in years of strong economic growth, hoi polloi re-elect the incumbent or his party; in bad years they don't)
- If the Romney gets in, the Tea-Party ideology which dominates the Repubs will cause the "fiscal cliff" I've muttered on about before. GDP will fall at least 3%. At least.
- Which will push the unemployment rate way above its previous highs. In fact, to post-war highs, to levels not seen since the Great Depression in the 30s.
- Very NOT good for shares.