Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, September 7, 2012

August's ISM data

The ISM (formerly NAPM) survey data correlate well with overall US economic activity, though not 100% at the month-to-month level.  They pretty much get the major and the minor cycles.  My judgement of last month's data (smoothed by my extreme adjustment program using the NBER's method) is that the slowdown apparent in recent months has come to an end.  Tonight (early morning US Friday) we'll get the employment and unemployment data for August, and we'll see whether that's evident in these numbers too.

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