Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

KMIT -- or should that be BRIMTICK?

Y'all are surely familiar with the BRIC countries.  It stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China.  The acronym and the whole idea was invented by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (not to be confused with the investment bank Goldman Ripoff) back in 2001.  It represents the fast-growing large emerging economies, which now make up about 24% of the world's economy, larger than the whole European Union (22%).  Now GSAM has come up with a new acronym: KMIT (Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey) which account for 7-ish percent of the world economy.  Together, these BRIMTICK countries (to use the acronym cleverly invented by Malcolm Maiden of Melbourne's  The Age) account for nearly 1/3 of total world GDP.  And they're all either growing fast or about to resume growing fast (India might not do so well; its pollies are every bit as cretinous as the US's or Europe's)

One snippet from Maiden's article:

GSAM underestimated how quickly the four BRICs would grow in its first BRIC report. It expected them to roughly triple their gross domestic product to a bit more than $US6 trillion by 2010, and their GDP actually topped $US10 trillion in that year. Now, GSAM predicts that its expanded eight-nation ''Growth Markets'' group - the BRIMTICKs perhaps? - will account for more than 55 per cent of global growth in the next 10 years, almost three times as much as the United States and Europe combined.
You can read the whole article here.  It makes interesting reading.

As you can see from the chart (my data, my chart), the KMIT countries haven't grown as fast as the BRIC (though that's mostly China), but they are doing far better than Europe or the OECD as a whole.  Also much of the gap between the two series opened up during the GFC when they collectively fell further than the BRIC countries did.  And let's not even talk about (shudder) the European countries being made really ill by insensate austerity blood-letting--their IP data are still declining.  More on this later; my programs are still a little unwell.  And I would like to smooth the KMIT series.  Indonesian data in particular are very "spiky".

[see also this post]




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