Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, June 25, 2012

June's Philly Fed index

Like most of the regional surveys (whether from the ISM or the Fed) the data are much more "spiky" than the broader national indices, so I've plotted the 3 month moving average of the Philly Fed data.  And the correlation with the national index isn't that close on a month-to-month basis, though the broad trends are comparable.  More evidence (along with such indicators as initial claims) of a soggy economy.  Again, I wouldn't worry too much about it except that Europe is in strife and the China tanker is struggling to change direction.

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