Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Saturday, June 30, 2012

Happy days are here again

The agreement to at last do something sensible in Europe gave the markets a powerful push. Wall St up over 2%, the Euro Stoxx 50 up nearly 5%.

The danger of a death cross in the S&P500 has passed for now.  Time to get back in.  There are still risks.  Greece is the biggest but I think that's pretty much priced in.  The agreement though does make defaults by Italy and Spain less likely, and the survival of the euro more likely.  I'd still like to see a lower bank rate from the ECB, but maybe we might get that too.  Europe is after all in recession.  Even the ECB must see that.

Note how last night's close in the S&P is above the previous high of 10 days ago, and how recent lows have been successively higher.  Note a similar pattern from the Euro 500 -- only from a lower base.  How long this rally will last, I don't know.  But the risks of being out of the market are now greater than the risks of being in.  At least, that's what I think.

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